VaR, Expected Shortfall, and the Power of Tail Awareness
VaR answers “how bad can it get most days,” while Expected Shortfall asks “how bad when it is bad.” ES respects tail severity and complements VaR’s brevity. Tell us which metric your board understands better and why.
VaR, Expected Shortfall, and the Power of Tail Awareness
Normality assumptions understate extremes, while correlations collapse when fear rises. Consider heavy-tailed distributions, regime-sensitive estimates, and robust correlations. If you have navigated a correlation breakdown, share your lesson below to help others.
VaR, Expected Shortfall, and the Power of Tail Awareness
Backtesting validates reliability, but failures are gifts: they reveal drift, data gaps, or structural change. Track exceptions, investigate context, and adapt. Subscribe to receive a monthly checklist for independent model challenge and improvement.
VaR, Expected Shortfall, and the Power of Tail Awareness
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